CMS Office of the Actuary releases 2022-2031 National Health Expenditure projections
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ (CMS) Office of the Actuary released projections of National Health Expenditures (NHE) and health insurance enrollment for the years 2022-2031. The report contains expected impacts from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), including that people with Medicare prescription drug coverage (Part D) are projected to experience lower out-of-pocket spending on prescription drugs for 2024 and beyond as several provisions from the law begin to take effect.
CMS projects that over 2022-2031, average annual growth in NHE (5.4%) will outpace average annual growth in gross domestic product (GDP) (4.6%), resulting in an increase in the health spending share of GDP from 18.3% in 2021 to 19.6% in 2031. The insured percentage of the population is projected to have reached a historic high of 92.3% in 2022 (due to high Medicaid enrollment and gains in Marketplace coverage). It is expected to remain at that rate through 2023. Given the expiration of the Medicaid continuous enrollment condition on March 31, 2023 and the resumption of Medicaid redeterminations, Medicaid enrollment is projected to fall over 2023-2025, most notably in 2024, with an expected net loss in enrollment of 8 million beneficiaries. If current law provisions in the Affordable Care Act are allowed to expire at the end of 2025, the insured share of the population is projected to be 91.2%. In 2031, the insured share of the population is projected to be 90.5%, similar to pre-pandemic levels.
Selected highlights on the IRA as well as NHE spending by major payer include:
- Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on Medicare Part D Enrollees
- Medicare
- Medicaid
- Private Health Insurance
Selected highlights in NHE for the three largest goods and services categories include:
- Overview of Hospital Trends
- Overview of Physician and Clinical Services Trends
- Overview of Retail Prescription Drugs Trends
